Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +19.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Nosek 58.0% (-19.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 89.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 74.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 84.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
Cates
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Cates
Nosek
Last 8: Cates 1-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
4
Cates
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
Cates
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
59.7% (469)
-19.3%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
100.0% (4)
-57.6%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
56.5% (124)
-23.8%
On power play, Nosek has a +57.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Nosek is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Cates
Nosek
Home
38.2% (566)
59.0% (295)
Away
41.0% (488)
59.6% (302)
By Period
Cates
Nosek
P1
40.5%
56.3%
P2
42.4%
61.9%
P3
35.3%
59.2%
OT
42.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:10 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:02 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:48 | Offensive | Noah Cates |