Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Nosek 51.4% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 65.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 51.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Cates
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Cates
Nosek
Last 6: Cates 3-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Cates
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Nosek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
53.0% (400)
-6.3%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
33.3% (12)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
45.5% (44)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Cates
Nosek
Home
46.1% (521)
49.6% (244)
Away
43.3% (584)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Cates
Nosek
P1
48.0%
53.1%
P2
42.3%
51.4%
P3
44.3%
51.1%
Final 5 min
42.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |