Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Nosek 53.6% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 76.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 80.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 76.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Cates
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Cates
Nosek
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Cates
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
4
Cates
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
3
4
Cates
Nosek
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
54.9% (2,674)
-10.8%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
44.7% (47)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
47.4% (424)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Nosek has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Cates
Nosek
Home
43.8% (1,663)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Cates
Nosek
P1
44.5%
52.3%
P2
43.5%
54.0%
P3
41.2%
54.6%
OT
29.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:10 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:02 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:48 | Offensive | Noah Cates |