Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 85.9%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 68.7%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 68.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 81.0%
19.0%
81.0%
Cates
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cates
Karlsson
Last 7: Cates 4-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Cates
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
55.3% (897)
-14.9%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
61.1% (113)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
50.8% (132)
-18.1%
On power play, Karlsson has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Cates
Karlsson
Home
38.2% (566)
58.6% (560)
Away
41.0% (488)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Cates
Karlsson
P1
40.5%
55.8%
P2
42.4%
55.6%
P3
35.3%
55.7%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 12:29 | Defensive | William Karlsson |