Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 91.0%
Defensive zone
Cates 84.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 83.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Cates
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Cates
Karlsson
Last 10: Cates 2-8 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
4
7
Cates
Karlsson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
4
Cates
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,742)
51.8% (7,849)
-7.7%
Power Play
43.0% (242)
54.8% (1,048)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
44.2% (1,109)
-9.3%
On power play, Karlsson has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Cates shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Cates
Karlsson
Home
43.8% (1,663)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
42.1% (1,694)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Cates
Karlsson
P1
44.5%
50.3%
P2
43.5%
51.3%
P3
41.2%
52.4%
OT
29.4%
44.9%
Final 5 min
41.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 12:29 | Defensive | William Karlsson |