Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 84.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 82.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 84.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Cates
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Cates
Karlsson
Last 8: Cates 1-7 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
3
Cates
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Cates
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Cates
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
56.3% (739)
-12.0%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
58.6% (181)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
47.2% (53)
-15.5%
On power play, Cates has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Cates shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Cates
Karlsson
Home
52.0% (148)
56.5% (462)
Away
38.5% (182)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Cates
Karlsson
P1
42.7%
57.1%
P2
42.9%
55.2%
P3
48.5%
56.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 05:07 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | William Karlsson |