Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 55.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 72.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 69.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Cates
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Cates
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Cates
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
58.6% (597)
-11.9%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
57.9% (57)
-24.0%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
51.9% (52)
-16.9%
On power play, Karlsson has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Cates
Karlsson
Home
46.1% (521)
59.6% (344)
Away
43.3% (584)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Cates
Karlsson
P1
48.0%
53.1%
P2
42.3%
62.1%
P3
44.3%
60.1%
OT
31.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.5%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |