Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Brown wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 56.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 81.0%
Defensive zone
Brown 63.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Brown
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Brown
Hertl
Last 8: Brown 2-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Brown
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
2
0
Brown
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Brown
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.3% (336)
51.6% (1,084)
+9.7%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
61.0% (246)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (74)
44.1% (136)
+1.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Brown is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Brown shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Brown
Hertl
Home
61.1% (180)
55.2% (696)
Away
56.4% (234)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Brown
Hertl
P1
57.5%
55.4%
P2
58.5%
54.8%
P3
59.2%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
61.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
58.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |