Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Brown wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 54.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.0%
Defensive zone
Brown 82.3%
Neutral zone
Brown 60.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Brown
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Brown
Hertl
Last 9: Brown 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Brown
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
2
0
Brown
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Brown
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (726)
53.8% (8,268)
+2.7%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
59.3% (1,975)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (136)
46.3% (806)
+1.5%
On power play, Brown has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Brown is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Brown shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Brown
Hertl
Home
57.4% (364)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
53.6% (506)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Brown
Hertl
P1
51.4%
53.6%
P2
54.6%
54.1%
P3
58.8%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |