Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Buchnevich wins 32.1% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 36.3% vs Hartman 44.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 77.8%
Defensive zone
Hartman 78.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 80.4%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 79.0%
21.0%
79.0%
Buchnevich
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Buchnevich
Hartman
Last 9: Buchnevich 6-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Buchnevich
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Buchnevich
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
3
0
Buchnevich
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
28.6% (192)
42.6% (495)
-14.0%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
38.5% (26)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (13)
48.8% (43)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Buchnevich is 32.1% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hartman is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hartman
Home
30.4% (112)
43.4% (288)
Away
29.4% (102)
42.4% (276)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hartman
P1
27.7%
43.1%
P2
33.3%
43.4%
P3
27.7%
42.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
29.9%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 11:24 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 10:22 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |