Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Buchnevich wins 34.4% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 41.5% vs Hartman 47.3% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 52.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 56.0%
Neutral zone
Hartman 52.3%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Buchnevich
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Buchnevich
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Buchnevich
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
0
Buchnevich
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
37.6% (197)
47.1% (649)
-9.5%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
47.1% (68)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
45.2% (73)
-45.2%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +45.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Buchnevich is 34.4% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hartman
Home
43.0% (114)
46.5% (361)
Away
30.4% (92)
47.3% (429)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hartman
P1
40.0%
45.1%
P2
35.7%
44.4%
P3
35.7%
50.9%
Final 5 min
48.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:16 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |