Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 32.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 45.3% vs Hertl 52.3% (-19.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 68.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.8%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 53.3%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Buchnevich
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
0
Buchnevich
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Buchnevich
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (30)
51.6% (1,084)
-14.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
61.0% (246)
-32.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
44.1% (136)
-44.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.1% vs left-shot opponents (28).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
31.3% (16)
55.2% (696)
Away
34.8% (23)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
35.7%
55.4%
P2
33.3%
54.8%
P3
30.8%
48.9%
Final 5 min
16.7%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
33.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |