Pavel Buchnevich vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +20.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Buchnevich wins 32.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 35.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-20.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 92.9%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 91.8%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 92.1%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Buchnevich
Hertl
Last 10: Buchnevich 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Buchnevich
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Buchnevich
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
7
Buchnevich
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
33.7% (895)
53.8% (8,268)
-20.1%
Power Play
44.2% (52)
59.3% (1,975)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
24.3% (37)
46.3% (806)
-22.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.8% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
34.7% (490)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
33.2% (494)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
34.4%
53.6%
P2
33.7%
54.1%
P3
33.4%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
37.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
33.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |