Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.6% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 32.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 41.2% vs Hertl 55.4% (-18.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 78.6%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 73.6%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 79.1%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Buchnevich
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Buchnevich
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
37.0% (211)
54.1% (717)
-17.1%
Power Play
50.0% (10)
61.9% (210)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
58.1% (31)
-29.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
35.6% (87)
58.1% (492)
Away
38.3% (141)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
36.3%
57.1%
P2
37.6%
54.0%
P3
38.1%
56.6%
Final 5 min
36.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |