Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 42.1% vs Hertl 57.2% (-20.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.1%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 57.1%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 54.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
37.7% (154)
58.1% (823)
-20.4%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
56.2% (265)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
62.9% (35)
-32.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (107).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
37.4% (91)
59.7% (561)
Away
37.9% (87)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
38.9%
51.6%
P2
31.5%
63.8%
P3
42.0%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
33.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |