Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Zacha 46.5% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 74.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Nelson
Zacha
Last 7: Nelson 6-1 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
45.3% (247)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
58.1% (31)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
22.2% (18)
+2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
48.9% (521)
39.7% (131)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.7% (165)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
45.9%
42.9%
P2
48.0%
46.4%
P3
48.0%
42.3%
OT
33.3%
87.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |