Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zacha wins 40.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 44.2% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 93.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 91.8%
8.2%
91.8%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
Last 7: Zacha 6-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
0
Zacha
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (514)
57.3% (1,073)
-14.5%
Power Play
51.9% (79)
58.5% (258)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (61)
50.7% (225)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (289)
59.2% (765)
Away
41.9% (365)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
47.4%
55.6%
P2
43.8%
61.0%
P3
37.7%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
61.3%
Final 5 min
39.3%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
43.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |