Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 52.8% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 56.6%
Defensive zone
Zacha 57.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 56.8%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (534)
56.2% (983)
-2.1%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
55.5% (254)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (96)
52.0% (102)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
53.4% (406)
56.2% (697)
Away
52.9% (333)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
56.8%
54.5%
P2
53.6%
55.5%
P3
49.2%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |