Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 60.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 62.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 63.3%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
18
(34 meetings)
16
18
Zacha
O'Reilly
Last 10: Zacha 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
7
3
Zacha
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
11
Zacha
O'Reilly
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
5
4
Zacha
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,102)
56.2% (15,260)
-7.3%
Power Play
55.6% (804)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (555)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (3,353)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.5% (3,108)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
49.9%
55.6%
P2
49.2%
57.0%
P3
48.1%
55.1%
OT
53.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |