Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 63.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (646)
55.4% (826)
-2.1%
Power Play
53.0% (100)
57.9% (221)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (72)
50.4% (129)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
51.7% (410)
55.8% (579)
Away
52.2% (408)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
57.7%
57.7%
P2
48.9%
54.8%
P3
50.2%
54.3%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |