Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Zacha wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.9% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (497)
54.6% (669)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.8% (84)
57.3% (171)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (64)
56.3% (87)
-18.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
51.0% (335)
56.4% (486)
Away
53.5% (310)
54.0% (441)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
60.0%
55.3%
P2
48.1%
53.4%
P3
48.8%
56.9%
OT
44.4%
55.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |