Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.9% vs Thompson 46.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 62.9%
Defensive zone
Zacha 89.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 79.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Zacha
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Zacha
Thompson
Last 9: Zacha 7-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
4
0
Zacha
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Zacha
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (497)
46.1% (484)
+7.6%
Power Play
54.8% (84)
48.4% (91)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (64)
30.0% (20)
+7.5%
On even strength, Zacha has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Zacha is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Zacha shoots left. Thompson is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Zacha
Thompson
Home
51.0% (335)
47.9% (313)
Away
53.5% (310)
43.6% (282)
By Period
Zacha
Thompson
P1
60.0%
50.5%
P2
48.1%
44.6%
P3
48.8%
42.3%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 19:33 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:25 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:30 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |