Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Zacha wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 46.5% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 84.0%
Defensive zone
Zacha 65.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 77.8%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Zacha
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Zacha
Karlsson
Last 5: Zacha 1-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Zacha
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Zacha
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (247)
55.3% (897)
-10.0%
Power Play
58.1% (31)
61.1% (113)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (18)
50.8% (132)
-28.6%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Zacha is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Zacha shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Zacha
Karlsson
Home
39.7% (131)
58.6% (560)
Away
49.7% (165)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Zacha
Karlsson
P1
42.9%
55.8%
P2
46.4%
55.6%
P3
42.3%
55.7%
OT
87.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
45.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 16:39 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | William Karlsson |