Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.7% vs 44.5%). Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kurashev wins 34.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kurashev 46.6% vs Novak 45.6% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 57.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 58.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 56.9%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Kurashev
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Kurashev
Novak
Last 7: Kurashev 2-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Kurashev
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kurashev
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kurashev
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kurashev
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (145)
43.8% (384)
-1.0%
Power Play
45.5% (33)
58.8% (17)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (12)
100.0% (1)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kurashev is 34.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Kurashev shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Kurashev
Novak
Home
51.2% (82)
46.5% (202)
Away
39.8% (108)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Kurashev
Novak
P1
51.7%
49.2%
P2
45.7%
44.2%
P3
37.0%
40.0%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Philipp Kurashev |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 01:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Philipp Kurashev |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |