Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Danault wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 54.8% vs Hertl 57.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Danault leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.7%
Defensive zone
Danault 70.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Danault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Danault
Hertl
Last 10: Danault 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Danault
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
4
0
Danault
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Danault
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (711)
58.0% (816)
-1.5%
Power Play
46.0% (50)
56.5% (260)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (116)
62.9% (35)
-11.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Danault is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Danault shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Danault
Hertl
Home
57.0% (379)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.0% (498)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Danault
Hertl
P1
55.8%
51.4%
P2
55.3%
64.1%
P3
54.8%
58.5%
OT
55.6%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |