Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Danault wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 54.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.5%
Defensive zone
Danault 76.4%
Neutral zone
Danault 60.6%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Danault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
21
(36 meetings)
15
21
Danault
Hertl
Last 10: Danault 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
12
Danault
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
6
2
Danault
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
7
Danault
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (953)
54.1% (1,117)
+1.0%
Power Play
64.6% (144)
59.8% (296)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (176)
34.4% (32)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Danault has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Danault is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Danault shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Danault
Hertl
Home
55.4% (641)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.3% (632)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Danault
Hertl
P1
61.0%
51.6%
P2
52.3%
53.6%
P3
51.3%
58.6%
OT
35.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:54 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:21 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 12:04 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:59 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:37 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:44 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 10:19 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |