Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 54.2%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 43 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 53.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 64-47 in 111 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.5%
Defensive zone
Danault 72.2%
Neutral zone
Danault 57.7%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Danault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
64
(111 meetings)
47
64
Danault
Hertl
Last 10: Danault 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
33
Danault
Hertl
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
23
15
Danault
Hertl
38 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
14
16
Danault
Hertl
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (9,447)
53.8% (8,268)
-0.2%
Power Play
61.4% (757)
59.3% (1,975)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (1,702)
46.3% (806)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Danault is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,872).
Danault shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Danault
Hertl
Home
54.2% (5,820)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
52.3% (6,086)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Danault
Hertl
P1
53.7%
53.6%
P2
53.5%
54.1%
P3
52.7%
55.3%
OT
49.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
53.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |