Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubois on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Dubois 47.1% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dubois 90.4%
Defensive zone
Dubois 53.4%
Neutral zone
Dubois 78.0%
Result
Pierre-Luc Dubois favored at 76.0%
24.0%
76.0%
Sturm
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Sturm
Dubois
Last 6: Sturm 1-5 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
3
Sturm
Dubois
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Dubois
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
1
Sturm
Dubois
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
46.1% (1,050)
+7.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
58.0% (81)
-29.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
25.0% (4)
+25.0%
On power play, Dubois has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Dubois is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (778).
Home / Away
Sturm
Dubois
Home
54.0% (287)
47.0% (581)
Away
52.0% (302)
46.8% (554)
By Period
Sturm
Dubois
P1
53.5%
46.9%
P2
51.0%
50.1%
P3
55.1%
43.9%
OT
20.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |