Scouting Report
Pius Suter holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Suter shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Suter 47.4% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suter 54.1%
Defensive zone
Suter 63.2%
Neutral zone
Suter 65.7%
Result
Pius Suter favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
MacKinnon
Suter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKinnon
Suter
Last 5: MacKinnon 4-1 Suter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Suter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Suter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suter
0
1
MacKinnon
Suter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Suter
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
48.0% (421)
-3.3%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
50.0% (4)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
31.3% (32)
+33.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suter shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Suter is 37.6% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Suter
Home
49.4% (553)
48.6% (183)
Away
40.0% (615)
45.6% (274)
By Period
MacKinnon
Suter
P1
45.3%
47.1%
P2
42.7%
47.3%
P3
45.1%
46.1%
Final 5 min
49.8%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Suter
48.0%▬
47.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:25 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 19:29 | Neutral | Pius Suter |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |