Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 53.4%). Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 52.9% vs Carrick 53.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 71.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.2%
Neutral zone
Thomas 50.9%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Thomas
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Thomas
Carrick
Last 6: Thomas 3-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
0
Thomas
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Thomas
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (1,166)
53.9% (521)
-0.7%
Power Play
56.9% (262)
57.1% (35)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (221)
51.5% (229)
-3.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Thomas is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Thomas shoots right. Carrick is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Thomas
Carrick
Home
51.6% (830)
52.7% (408)
Away
54.7% (819)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Thomas
Carrick
P1
52.7%
51.4%
P2
55.6%
56.6%
P3
50.6%
52.1%
Final 5 min
56.6%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |