Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 52.2%). Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Thomas wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.6% vs Carrick 52.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 65.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 85.0%
Neutral zone
Carrick 65.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Thomas
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Thomas
Carrick
Last 10: Thomas 7-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
9
0
Thomas
Carrick
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Thomas
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,350)
52.1% (2,513)
-1.0%
Power Play
55.8% (921)
61.3% (75)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
49.9% (691)
50.7% (430)
-0.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Thomas is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,043).
Thomas shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Thomas
Carrick
Home
50.9% (3,458)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
52.3% (3,504)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Thomas
Carrick
P1
50.6%
51.8%
P2
52.9%
52.2%
P3
50.8%
52.4%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 09:59 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |