Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 49.9% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 60.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Thomas
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Thomas
Stamkos
Last 7: Thomas 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
0
Thomas
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (910)
49.3% (789)
-0.3%
Power Play
53.5% (142)
56.9% (181)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (75)
54.1% (98)
-0.8%
On power play, Stamkos has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thomas is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Thomas shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Thomas
Stamkos
Home
47.3% (514)
52.0% (512)
Away
52.0% (613)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Thomas
Stamkos
P1
50.4%
42.1%
P2
47.5%
56.4%
P3
51.4%
53.7%
OT
61.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 17:46 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |