Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 53.8%). Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 52.7% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 61.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 53.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Thomas
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Thomas
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (924)
55.3% (628)
-1.7%
Power Play
55.2% (181)
55.1% (216)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (116)
40.2% (87)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thomas is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Thomas shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Thomas
Stamkos
Home
53.6% (606)
55.5% (499)
Away
52.2% (615)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Thomas
Stamkos
P1
48.2%
50.7%
P2
55.3%
53.8%
P3
55.2%
55.9%
OT
47.1%
87.5%
Final 5 min
55.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |