Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Thomas wins 54.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 54.5% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.4%
Defensive zone
Thomas 78.5%
Neutral zone
Thomas 63.7%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Thomas
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Thomas
Stamkos
Last 10: Thomas 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
6
Thomas
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
6
0
Thomas
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Thomas
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (990)
49.3% (670)
+6.0%
Power Play
54.2% (190)
53.7% (121)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (158)
33.3% (3)
+19.2%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thomas is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Thomas shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Thomas
Stamkos
Home
55.1% (690)
54.0% (400)
Away
54.5% (648)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Thomas
Stamkos
P1
55.5%
48.6%
P2
56.4%
54.5%
P3
51.5%
45.4%
OT
69.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 03:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:15 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 05:30 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |