Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.7% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 81.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 63.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
Thomas
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Thomas
Stamkos
Last 8: Thomas 5-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
0
Thomas
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (615)
56.1% (342)
-6.0%
Power Play
62.2% (98)
53.3% (92)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (114)
62.5% (8)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thomas is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Thomas shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Thomas
Stamkos
Home
51.9% (374)
53.4% (208)
Away
51.9% (453)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Thomas
Stamkos
P1
49.2%
55.6%
P2
55.3%
52.8%
P3
50.6%
59.1%
OT
57.1%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.2%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |