Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Hintz wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hintz 53.5% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hintz 53.7%
Defensive zone
Hintz 68.5%
Neutral zone
Hintz 51.2%
Result
Roope Hintz favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Hintz
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Hintz
O'Reilly
Last 7: Hintz 2-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hintz
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Hintz
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
5
Hintz
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hintz
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (711)
56.2% (983)
-2.6%
Power Play
53.8% (93)
55.5% (254)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
58.7% (46)
52.0% (102)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Hintz has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hintz is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (518).
Hintz shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Hintz
O'Reilly
Home
52.6% (460)
56.2% (697)
Away
55.4% (390)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Hintz
O'Reilly
P1
59.0%
54.5%
P2
52.7%
55.5%
P3
51.1%
57.1%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hintz
64.0%▲
61.0%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |