Scouting Report
Ross Colton holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Colton wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 51.4% vs Novak 43.5% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 78.8%
Defensive zone
Colton 70.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 54.9%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Colton
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Colton
Novak
Last 5: Colton 2-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Colton
1
0
Colton
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Colton
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Colton
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (741)
40.7% (460)
+11.4%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
61.5% (39)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
0.0% (1)
+42.1%
On penalty kill, Colton has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Colton is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (551).
Colton shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Colton
Novak
Home
54.0% (411)
47.0% (236)
Away
49.1% (409)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Colton
Novak
P1
56.7%
43.1%
P2
53.1%
43.1%
P3
46.3%
40.1%
Final 5 min
44.0%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
51.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 18:25 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |