Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Hartman 45.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 28-14 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 73.3%
Defensive zone
Hartman 73.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 73.2%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
28
(42 meetings)
14
28
Nelson
Hartman
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
6
15
Nelson
Hartman
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
5
8
Nelson
Hartman
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
3
5
Nelson
Hartman
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
44.8% (4,023)
+3.0%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
47.1% (412)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
42.5% (261)
+1.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,420).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
49.8% (5,696)
46.3% (2,446)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
43.4% (2,250)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
48.6%
45.2%
P2
48.4%
43.2%
P3
47.4%
46.2%
OT
46.4%
56.5%
Final 5 min
47.4%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Hartman
44.0%▲
41.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 08:14 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |