Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.8%). Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hartman 48.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.0%
Defensive zone
Hartman 58.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 51.9%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
McDavid
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Hartman
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
48.1% (520)
-0.4%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
44.7% (47)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
47.8% (23)
-25.6%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Hartman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hartman
Home
47.3% (387)
48.3% (360)
Away
48.1% (389)
47.0% (230)
By Period
McDavid
Hartman
P1
47.6%
48.5%
P2
50.0%
45.2%
P3
45.0%
49.6%
Final 5 min
46.8%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |