Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hartman wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.5% vs Hertl 57.2% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.3%
Defensive zone
Hartman 72.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 59.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Hartman
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hartman
Hertl
Last 8: Hartman 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Hartman
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
1
Hartman
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
0
Hartman
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (830)
58.1% (823)
-13.3%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
56.2% (265)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
62.9% (35)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Hartman shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Hartman
Hertl
Home
45.0% (515)
59.7% (561)
Away
44.9% (423)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Hartman
Hertl
P1
46.5%
51.6%
P2
39.9%
63.8%
P3
48.6%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
43.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |