Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hartman wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.3% vs Hertl 52.3% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 69.5%
Defensive zone
Hartman 61.3%
Neutral zone
Hartman 64.1%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Hartman
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hartman
Hertl
Last 9: Hartman 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hartman
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Hartman
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hartman
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (936)
51.6% (1,084)
-6.8%
Power Play
49.4% (154)
61.0% (246)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (54)
44.1% (136)
-10.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hartman is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (800).
Hartman shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Hartman
Hertl
Home
47.4% (568)
55.2% (696)
Away
42.4% (576)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Hartman
Hertl
P1
47.2%
55.4%
P2
43.4%
54.8%
P3
43.8%
48.9%
OT
53.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
44.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 19:16 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |