Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Hartman wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 48.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.6%
Defensive zone
Hartman 76.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 59.4%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Hartman
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Hartman
Hertl
Last 6: Hartman 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Hartman
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Hartman
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (520)
54.1% (717)
-6.0%
Power Play
44.7% (47)
61.9% (210)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (23)
58.1% (31)
-10.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hartman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Hartman shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Hartman
Hertl
Home
48.3% (360)
58.1% (492)
Away
47.0% (230)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Hartman
Hertl
P1
48.5%
57.1%
P2
45.2%
54.0%
P3
49.6%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |