Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 25 meetings). Hartman wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 49-22 in 71 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 96.4%
Defensive zone
Hartman 89.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 92.9%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 93.2%
93.2%
6.8%
Hartman
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
49
(71 meetings)
22
49
Hartman
Hertl
Last 10: Hartman 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
20
Hartman
Hertl
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
13
Hartman
Hertl
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
16
Hartman
Hertl
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (4,235)
53.8% (8,268)
-8.6%
Power Play
47.4% (443)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (262)
46.3% (806)
-3.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,559).
Hartman shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Hartman
Hertl
Home
46.7% (2,589)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
43.6% (2,351)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Hartman
Hertl
P1
46.0%
53.6%
P2
42.9%
54.1%
P3
46.8%
55.3%
OT
53.8%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |