Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hartman wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.5% vs Zegras 35.4% (+14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 80.7%
Defensive zone
Hartman 96.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 94.3%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 94.9%
94.9%
5.1%
Hartman
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Hartman
Zegras
Last 6: Hartman 6-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
0
Hartman
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
0
Hartman
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (830)
29.6% (230)
+15.2%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
32.1% (56)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
100.0% (1)
-62.5%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Hartman shoots right. Zegras is 29.7% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Home / Away
Hartman
Zegras
Home
45.0% (515)
30.6% (147)
Away
44.9% (423)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Hartman
Zegras
P1
46.5%
33.0%
P2
39.9%
31.7%
P3
48.6%
25.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.5%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |