Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.0% vs 45.5%). Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hartman wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.5% vs Gourde 46.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 66.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 64.6%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.1%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Hartman
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Hartman
Gourde
Last 8: Hartman 6-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
0
Hartman
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Hartman
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
1
Hartman
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (830)
47.2% (654)
-2.4%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
45.0% (20)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
32.2% (87)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Hartman shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Hartman
Gourde
Home
45.0% (515)
44.1% (322)
Away
44.9% (423)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Hartman
Gourde
P1
46.5%
42.4%
P2
39.9%
49.8%
P3
48.6%
44.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:07 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:52 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |