Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 48.4% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 50.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 51.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 8: McLeod 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
1
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
McLeod
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
McLeod
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (500)
56.1% (690)
-7.1%
Power Play
43.8% (48)
64.6% (96)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (50)
45.9% (109)
-1.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (370).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
50.9% (291)
58.3% (408)
Away
45.6% (307)
53.6% (487)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
44.3%
57.7%
P2
52.4%
54.8%
P3
47.8%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
48.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
48.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |