Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 26-17 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 89.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 77.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 85.5%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
26
(43 meetings)
17
26
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
13
McLeod
O'Reilly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
9
4
McLeod
O'Reilly
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
9
McLeod
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,345)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.8%
Power Play
51.0% (292)
58.8% (3,445)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (635)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
50.2% (2,158)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
55.6%
P2
48.4%
57.0%
P3
50.0%
55.1%
OT
37.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |