Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 83.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 55.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
McLeod
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
0
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (796)
55.4% (826)
-6.2%
Power Play
44.8% (87)
57.9% (221)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (263)
50.4% (129)
-7.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
49.2% (575)
55.8% (579)
Away
45.9% (571)
54.9% (597)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
52.8%
57.7%
P2
45.1%
54.8%
P3
45.6%
54.3%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |