Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 50.7% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 64.4%
Neutral zone
McLeod 54.9%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 5: McLeod 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (628)
55.0% (1,084)
-3.7%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
56.8% (303)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (49)
40.3% (149)
-9.7%
On power play, McLeod has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
51.5% (394)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.0% (324)
53.0% (777)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
51.5%
55.3%
P2
47.0%
51.9%
P3
54.3%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
50.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:55 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |