Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.6% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 59.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 65.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 62.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
McLeod
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
McLeod
Lorentz
Last 8: McLeod 6-2 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
1
McLeod
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
1
McLeod
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,345)
48.9% (1,118)
+1.5%
Power Play
51.0% (292)
50.0% (26)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (635)
41.9% (86)
+2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
McLeod shoots left. Lorentz is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
McLeod
Lorentz
Home
50.2% (2,158)
50.8% (606)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
46.2% (624)
By Period
McLeod
Lorentz
P1
50.8%
53.0%
P2
48.4%
46.8%
P3
50.0%
46.1%
OT
37.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 18:58 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 09:33 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:33 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 02:27 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |