Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2015-16 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 45.4% vs Hertl 54.9% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 86.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Last 5: Nugent-Hopkins 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
3
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (695)
55.0% (382)
-11.8%
Power Play
53.8% (104)
59.7% (67)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (24)
75.0% (8)
-20.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
48.2% (465)
58.8% (221)
Away
40.5% (358)
53.4% (236)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
40.8%
52.6%
P2
41.3%
53.6%
P3
52.1%
62.4%
OT
56.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2016 | OT | 04:22 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 12:37 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 10:44 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |